RUSSIAN UKRAINE WAR - 2025.07.04| SITUATION UPDATE

1.  Introduction / Background

- Today marks Day 1,222 of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The conflict continues to escalate, with Russia launching its most intense aerial assault yet, amid growing international concerns and shifting diplomatic stances.

2.  Key Highlights

Killed

- At least 7 people confirmed dead

- 5 in Russian air raids (including Lt. Col. Maksym Ustimenko, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot)

- 2 in Russian shelling (including a 70-year-old woman in Zaporizhia)

- 1 in a Ukrainian drone strike in Luhansk (Russian-occupied area)

Injured

- At least 2 injured in Russia’s Kursk region from a Ukrainian attack

Homes/Infrastructure Destroyed:

- Major fire at an industrial facility in Drohobych, Lviv region

- Power outages reported in parts of Lviv

- Structural damage from air raids and shelling reported in Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kostiantynivka

3.  Governments’ Response

Ukraine

- President Zelenskyy signed a decree to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, citing asymmetric warfare by Russia.

- Ministry of Foreign Affairs supported the move, pending parliamentary approval.

Russia

- Russian Defence Ministry claimed control of Novoukrainka in Donetsk.

- Kremlin warned of retaliation over EU sanctions, calling them illegal and counterproductive.

4.  Military Developments

- Russia launched 537 aerial weapons, including 477 drones/decoys and 60 missiles — the largest such attack since February 2022.

- Ukraine intercepted 475 of these.

- NATO jets scrambled to monitor the threat near Poland, though no missiles entered Polish airspace.

- Ukraine lost a senior F-16 pilot during the interception effort.

5.  Militants’ Activity

- Ukrainian drones struck Russian-occupied Luhansk, killing one.

- Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kursk region injured two civilians.

- No independent confirmation of Russia’s claimed capture of Novoukrainka.

6.  Impact On Trade and Travel

- Power disruptions in western Ukraine could impact industrial output and local transport.

- Escalation in aerial threats may pose risks to air travel and logistics corridors, especially near western borders.

7.  International Response

- US Senator Lindsey Graham said Congress will vote on new Russian sanctions, following President Trump’s directive.

- Russia’s Peskov warned of “serious recoil” if EU enacts harsher sanctions.

- CIA-Russian intelligence communication confirmed; spy chiefs agreed to keep direct communication open.

8.  Comment

- This latest wave of attacks signals a tactical intensification by Russia, likely aiming to exhaust Ukraine’s defenses and morale while exploiting Western political divisions.

- Ukraine’s potential use of anti-personnel mines suggests a shift towards asymmetric deterrence. Continued NATO vigilance underscores rising fears of cross-border escalation.

9.  Latest News in Two Lines

- Russia launched its largest aerial assault since 2022, firing 537 aerial weapons; 475 intercepted by Ukraine.

- Ukraine moves to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, signaling a shift in war policy.